As is typical this time of year, the number of active listings has started to rapidly drop. The number of homes on the market for all Orange County declined by 8% over the past two weeks, shedding 391 homes and now sits at 4,323. Since peaking in mid-July, inventory has plunged by 1,660 homes, a significant 28% drop. Welcome to the Holiday Market. Expect inventory to continue to descend for the remainder of the year. As a result, the New Year will start with fewer than 4,000 homes, the lowest since 2013. Last year at this time, there were 5,177 homes on the market, 854 or 20% more than today.
Demand, the number of active escrows, decreased by 10% in the past two weeks. This represents a drop of 232 pending sales, or 10%, and now totals 2,082. Like the active inventory, demand just experienced its biggest drop of the year. The decline will continue through the end of the month and will reach its lowest point at the start of the new year. Last year at this time, there were 2,116 pending sales, 34 more than today.
The expected market time, or the average amount of time it would take to sell a home, increased slightly from 61 to 62 days, marginally a seller’s market with mild appreciation. Last year’s expected market time was at 73 days.
Luxury demand plunged in the past two weeks. Demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 299 to 236 pending sales, down 21%. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,672 homes to 1,585, a 5% drop in the past two-weeks, a smaller drop than the lower end of the market since many of these properties are not owner occupied. Both inventory and demand will continue to drop through the end of the year. The expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 168 days to 201.
For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 112 to 129 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 143 to 169 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 181 days to 246 days. Finally, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 466 to 437 days. At 466 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the mid-February 2019.
We actually think listing a property during the holiday season is a good, counter-intuitive strategy. Yours would be a fresh listing in a market where only serious shoppers are out looking with fewer and fewer options. Please let us know if you would like to discuss this further.
Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.
That's the Way the World Goes 'Round
Stalemate is a situation in the game of chess where the player whose turn it is to move is not in check and has no legal move. The game ends in a draw. Since the start… Read more
This was the sub-heading of a Daily Pilot article I came across as I was sorting through old archives in a home I recently purchased in Laguna Beach. The article was p… Read more
OFF THE CHARTS When compiling year-over-year statistics, economists tend to work in single-digit percentages. For example, the U.S. GDP growth over the past few years … Read more
2020 Hindsight I know I’m one of the lucky ones. No one in my immediate family has been directly affected by COVID 19, although my father’s 92-year-old twin brother an… Read more
Proposition 19 recently passed, amending California’s Constitution by expanding qualifications for the transfer of a property’s taxable value. Beginning April 1, 2021,… Read more
This year has simply been bonkers. And we still have over a month to go! The news of Kobe and Gianna was swept away by the tsunami of events that followed: the pandemi… Read more
SOUTH ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL HOUSING IN DEMAND Despite the economy being shut down for the majority of 2020, housing along the coast of South Orange County has done exc… Read more
I think we can all agree that a bit of good news is welcome. My gig is working in the residential real estate market, particularly along the coastal towns of South Ora… Read more
You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.